Real F-ing Racing

I've long held that Andy Schleck is a bit of a whiner. Sure, he got dropped in 2010 because of a chain drop. Should Contador have held up on that one? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not going to speculate on cycling ethics. The point is, Schleck can't blame the loss on Contador. He's the one who lost. Take responsibility like a man.

This year upon losing time to Contador again in stage 16 he complained that the final descent was too dangerous. Strange, Contador, Evans and Sanchez didn't seem to have a problem. I've never ridden it, so I'm not going to speculate on whether or not it is, in fact, too dangerous. Everyone rides the same course; you don't win or lose based on the course. You win or lose based on what you do.

I've been annoyed at the Schleck's timidity in attacking, really attacking, Contador, Evans, et al. I haven't seen them press home their team advantage, which is huge. Today, they played the chess match perfectly. With a teammater up the road, Andy attacked 60 km out and the rest of the riders did what I hate, they sat and looked at each other, everyone waiting for the others to attack. To be fair, maybe they didn't want to bring up Fränk Schleck, but that's the fucking point that Lay-O-Pard (LOP) haven't been stressing. They have the guys, like Monfort, who can get out in a break and be in position for their leader if he catches up. With Fränk in the bunch, you force everyone else to either chase, and then LOP have 3 guys in the pack, or Andy runs away with it, because no one wants to work with his rival. That's exactly what happened. Textbook tactics. This stage needs to be studied for both what to do (LOP) and what not to do (everyone else).

What kills me is that you didn't see (and I haven't watched the full recap yet...) Basso, Evans, Voeckler and Contador working together to bring Andy back. Instead everyone waited for someone else to make the attack. You can't assume that if a guy goes out 50-60k from the line over the mountains that you'll catch him. I had figured Contador would be more aggressive, but he wasn't. I still don't get it. Props to Evans for making the move 10k out, but that was too late. I'll give him respect for being strong, but negate that for not being aggressive when he needed to be. Someday Cadel, you'll put it together. As for Alberto, you'll always have the Giro. Maybe the Vuelta this year?

And for Andy Schleck - a major chapeau. Real f-ing racing.

Thor Hushovd

Recently The New York Times Magazine did a lengthy and, to me, interesting piece about the decline of athletes in general and Derek Jeter as they aged. The conclusion was that since men tend to lose fast twitch muscle as they age, and baseball is inherently a fast twitch muscle sport, a ball player's decline is inevitable, even if he is in his top shape. Since slow twitch muscle decreases at a lower rate, an athlete can have more overall strength, but the balance tips in favor of the slow twitch muscles.

So what does this have to do with Thor? In his younger days Thor was a pure sprinter. He could climb pretty well for a sprinter, but he was definitely a sprinter. In 2009 Thor won him a green jersey by attacking on stage 17 and staying out over a couple of mountain passes to build his lead in the green jersey competition. Now he has taken 2 Tour de France stages in the mountains. And the guy's a sprinter? What happened? I suppose he got older and lost some fast twitch muscle. Thor himself admitted as much, without realizing it. Normally loss of athletic performance is replaced by 'craftiness'. Thor replaced his declining fast twitch muscle with more slow twitch muscle. He's now a much faster climber and more able to run out on the mountain stages. I'd expect to see more stage wins from Thor in the future, especially in these types of stages.

Rest day thoughts

Randoms from the rest day:

-I hope Vinokourov doesn't let his TdF career end like this.

de France, stage 9, Alexander Vinokourov">

-If you're Thor Hushovd, losing the Maillot Jaune sucks, especially to Voeckler. But you have 2 consolations: 1) You held the jersey longer than anyone expected. 2) You're pulling the World Champion stripes back on. So yeah. And the world champion stripes on the MJ team logo looks super bad ass.

-HTFU should be known, from here on out as Hoogerland the F___ Up.

Hoogerland (Vacansoleil-DCM) is attended to by a Tour doctor following a frightening crash onto a barbed wire fence.">

Note: I didn't want to post the photo of his ass all torn up, but it's nasty.

-I can't wait until the mountains and the real racing starts. Unfortunately(?) I'm going to be camping and won't be able to see any results for the weekend's action in the Pyrenees. Oh well.

Contador, Cadel, Cav

I don't really have any over-arching thoughts on stages 4 and 5 so I'll mention thoughts about 3 riders.

Contador - I'm not sure what I think about Contador lighting up the action on Tuesday. On the one hand, I like the aggression. I like the message he sent to Andy Schleck that he's not going out easy. That he's going to take time wherever he can. I like that he picked up 8 seconds. It's not much, but it helps. I like the psychological boost that I think Contador got. That said, I think Andy Schleck probably let Contador go. And was attacking and burning matches for 8 seconds worth it? I don't know. I do know one thing - Lance's great tactical move was to always race for time. The race is long, will Contador's racing for time on stage 3 help or hurt him in the long run? We'll see.

Cadel - I'm not sure what I think about Cadel lighting up the action on Tuesday. On the one hand, I like the aggression. I like the message that he sent that he's going on the offensive and not sitting back. On the other hand, does it matter? I haven't had a positive opinion of Cadel - I've always considered him too passive of a Tour rider. It's great to see him attacking, but I wonder if it's too little, too late, or rather, too early in this race. We'll see.

Cavendish - I am sure what I think about Cav. I've not liked him for a long time. Sure, sprinters have to be a bit cocky, but look at Thor. On Monday you had the Maillot Jaune, the World Champion, leading out a teammate. I've always thought Thor a class act and a smart rider. I've always respected the fact that Cav is fast, but at the same time I've always given his lead train a ton of credit. If the Highroad train is on, Cav wins. If they're not, he pouts. If you asked me, Mark Renshaw is one of the most important and most under-rated rider out there. Today, however, Cavendish managed to win a sprint Robbie McEwen-style; by weaving through the pack and out-working everyone, rather than having it handed to him on a platter (well, as much as that can happen anyway). So credit to Cavendish, who did it all himself.

Stage 6 is a little more vertical than stage 5. I can see someone like Voeckler going on a break (and maybe sticking it). I'd like to see Jens Voigt go out, but he's going to be watching out for the Schlecks, so not break for him. Still, I can't wait for the mountains. Soon.

Tour de France - preview and stage 1 prediction

Le Tour de France! starts this Saturday, 7/2. So many questions, so much to think and talk about. The big question is - no, not who's going to win - who will have the ugliest shoes? Cadel Evans - I'm looking at you (or not, if you keep pulling crap like this).

Anyway, this course looks, on an overall level, very well suited for Andy Schleck. Minimal KMs of time trialing (only 41 km of ITT), a couple of big mountain finishes, it looks like Andy's year. It'll help that, I think, he'll have an early lead on Contador. Typically the first stage is a prologue, but this year we get a road stage. That's all well and good. Under normal circumstances, this would lead to a typical "pure" (e.g. Cavendish) sprinter's stage. In this case, just looking at the stage profile, with a cat 4 climb right at the finish, one would think more of a "climbing" sprinter's (e.g. Hushovd, Gilbert, Flecha) stage. In such a stage, you would expect the GC contending teams - Saxo Bank (Contador), Lay-o-pard (Schlecks), Sky (Wiggins), BMC (Evans) - to sit back and keep their guys out. Not this year. With a team time trial on stage 2 that's the first change the GC guys have to separate themselves. Given the advantage of starting last (e.g. you can pace yourself better) and since teams go off in reverse order of their highest-placed rider, with only one stage to set up the TTT I think the GC teams are going to go full gas and try to get their best placings possible. To me, this is dangerous for Contador. His team is strong, but he doesn't have the biggest motor in the peloton on his side. That advantage belongs to Andy Schleck and Team Lay-o-pard Trek; Mr. Fabian Cancellara. My pick for stage one, then, is Fabi. I think that the climbing right at the end suits him perfectly. If the Schlecks want to win, expect to see a lot of Lay-o-pard on the front at the end of the stage. Of course Saxo and Sky will be right there with them, but in the end, expect Fabi to put down the hammer. I think Flecha and Hushovd can go with Cancellara, and expect Vinokourov, Evans and Gilbert to be up there too, but I think the Lay-o-pard guys have the most to gain from if not winning, then at least positioning themselves as high as possible and I think they know it.

It should be a real firecracker of a stage. I'm excited. TdF baby.