Tour de France - preview and stage 1 prediction

Le Tour de France! starts this Saturday, 7/2. So many questions, so much to think and talk about. The big question is - no, not who's going to win - who will have the ugliest shoes? Cadel Evans - I'm looking at you (or not, if you keep pulling crap like this).

Anyway, this course looks, on an overall level, very well suited for Andy Schleck. Minimal KMs of time trialing (only 41 km of ITT), a couple of big mountain finishes, it looks like Andy's year. It'll help that, I think, he'll have an early lead on Contador. Typically the first stage is a prologue, but this year we get a road stage. That's all well and good. Under normal circumstances, this would lead to a typical "pure" (e.g. Cavendish) sprinter's stage. In this case, just looking at the stage profile, with a cat 4 climb right at the finish, one would think more of a "climbing" sprinter's (e.g. Hushovd, Gilbert, Flecha) stage. In such a stage, you would expect the GC contending teams - Saxo Bank (Contador), Lay-o-pard (Schlecks), Sky (Wiggins), BMC (Evans) - to sit back and keep their guys out. Not this year. With a team time trial on stage 2 that's the first change the GC guys have to separate themselves. Given the advantage of starting last (e.g. you can pace yourself better) and since teams go off in reverse order of their highest-placed rider, with only one stage to set up the TTT I think the GC teams are going to go full gas and try to get their best placings possible. To me, this is dangerous for Contador. His team is strong, but he doesn't have the biggest motor in the peloton on his side. That advantage belongs to Andy Schleck and Team Lay-o-pard Trek; Mr. Fabian Cancellara. My pick for stage one, then, is Fabi. I think that the climbing right at the end suits him perfectly. If the Schlecks want to win, expect to see a lot of Lay-o-pard on the front at the end of the stage. Of course Saxo and Sky will be right there with them, but in the end, expect Fabi to put down the hammer. I think Flecha and Hushovd can go with Cancellara, and expect Vinokourov, Evans and Gilbert to be up there too, but I think the Lay-o-pard guys have the most to gain from if not winning, then at least positioning themselves as high as possible and I think they know it.

It should be a real firecracker of a stage. I'm excited. TdF baby.